Turkey Prices 2026: Target 79¢, Walmart 97¢ and USDA Forecast

Turkey prices come in two kinds, and headlines often mix them up. Wholesale is what buyers pay producers, and retail is what you pay at the store. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts the first, while grocers set the second, often with holiday promotions. This guide separates the two, so you can see what is known today and what you will actually pay.

Use this page if you are budgeting for Thanksgiving on Thursday, November 26, 2026. If you would rather pay someone else to cook, see our guide to prepared Thanksgiving dinners instead, because prices here cover groceries.

What Are Turkey Prices at Stores This Year?

Two national retailers have published per-pound turkey prices so far: Target at 79¢ and Walmart at 97¢. Aldi and Lidl include a whole turkey in a set basket price but do not state a per-pound price in their announcements.

Retailer	Turkey	Announced price	When and limits
Target	Good & Gather frozen	79¢ per pound	Starting in November; no end date given; pre-tax
Walmart	Butterball	97¢ per pound, same as last year	Oct 28 to Dec 24; basket offer excludes AK, HI, OK, PR, WI
Aldi	Farmer’s Choice, 16 lb	Inside the under-$39 basket	Turkey available from Nov 4; priced through Nov 25
Lidl	Shady Brook Farms frozen, 14 lb	Inside the $35.86 basket	Nov 11 to Nov 25; Lidl Plus members only

Turkey prices at Costco, Kroger and Publix

We found no 2026 per-pound turkey price announced by Costco, Kroger, Publix or Whole Foods as of November 7, 2026. Deal-tracker sites do list weekly-ad prices for some of them, but we did not use those because the retailers have not confirmed them. For a turkey price near you, check your store’s app or weekly ad before you shop.

Are turkey prices higher compared to last year?

At wholesale, yes. On the shelf, it depends on the store. Walmart says its 97¢ price matches last year, and Target says its 79¢ store-brand price is back for a third straight year. The national retail average for 2026 is not known yet, because Farm Bureau’s survey has not been released.

What Does USDA Forecast for Turkey Prices?

USDA forecasts an average wholesale price of 175.5¢ per pound for 2026, compared with 135.8¢ in 2025, according to the Economic Research Service outlook dated October 16, 2026. The figure tracks national 8-16 lb frozen hens. By our arithmetic, that is a 39.7¢ rise, or about 29%.

Period	2025	2026	Change, our arithmetic	Percent, our arithmetic
Q1 (Jan-Mar)	94.8¢	169.9¢	+75.1¢	+79.2%
Q2 (Apr-Jun)	119.3¢	176.3¢	+57.0¢	+47.8%
Q3 (Jul-Sep)	156.8¢	180.7¢	+23.9¢	+15.2%
Q4 (Oct-Dec)	172.2¢	175.0¢ (forecast)	+2.8¢	+1.6%
Full year	135.8¢	175.5¢ (forecast)	+39.7¢	+29.2%

Why the 29% number overstates the holiday jump

The annual comparison looks dramatic because early 2025 prices were low: 94.8¢ in the first quarter. Prices had already climbed by the end of last year. For October through December, the season that matters to Thanksgiving buyers, USDA’s forecast is 175.0¢ against 172.2¢ last year, up only 1.6% by our arithmetic.

USDA also reported weekly frozen hen bids averaging 184.0¢ per pound for the week ending October 2. Looking further out, the agency expects 145¢ per pound in 2027. Its next outlook is due November 17, 2026, and may revise these numbers.

Why Are Turkey Prices Up?

USDA gives two direct reasons. The October 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report says turkey price forecasts rose on current price strength and tight supplies of whole birds. The Economic Research Service adds that heavier trading heading into the autumn buying period signaled ongoing demand strength.

• Tight supplies of whole birds: USDA’s stated reason, even though total production is rising.
• Ongoing demand strength: USDA’s reading of autumn trading volume.
• Avian flu, reported but not named as the cause: USDA counted 11 cases in commercial turkey flocks in September across Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota and South Dakota, affecting 544,900 birds, plus two cases and 119,300 birds in August.

USDA reports those flu cases, yet its price sentences do not blame them. Likewise, neither report forecasts a Thanksgiving shortage. In fact, USDA raised its 2026 production forecast to 5,134 million pounds, from 4,844 million in 2025, while exports rise to 461 million pounds from 420 million.

What named sources said about 2025

Last year’s explanations are useful background, but they describe 2025. Farm Bureau economist Faith Parum said farmers were still rebuilding flocks after avian influenza. Separately, Texas A&M AgriLife economist David Anderson told RFD-TV in November 2025 that higher feed, labor and energy costs and slow flock rebuilding were weighing on production.

How Much Will Thanksgiving Dinner Cost in 2026?

The Thanksgiving dinner cost for 2026 is not announced as of November 7, 2026. The latest result is from 2025, when the American Farm Bureau Federation, the national farm organization that has run this survey for 40 years, put a classic dinner for 10 at $55.18, or about $5.52 per person. That was down 5% from 2024 and below the record $64.05 of 2022.

2025 Farm Bureau menu item	2025 price	Change from 2024
16-lb turkey ($1.34 per lb)	$21.50	-16.3%
30 oz pumpkin pie mix	$4.16	+0.1%
3 lb sweet potatoes	$4.00	+37%
1 gallon whole milk	$3.73	+16.3%
14 oz cubed stuffing	$3.71	-9%
Miscellaneous ingredients	$3.61	-4.7%
1 dozen dinner rolls	$3.56	-14.6%
2 frozen pie crusts	$3.37	-0.8%
12 oz fresh cranberries	$2.28	-2.8%
1 lb frozen peas	$2.03	+17.2%
1/2 pint whipping cream	$1.87	+3.2%
1 lb veggie tray	$1.36	+61.3%
Total for 10 (2025)	$55.18	-5%

Last year’s release came on November 19, so the 2026 number could land within two weeks. That timing is our estimate, based on one year. Regional gaps matter too: in 2025 the classic menu averaged $50.01 in the South and $61.75 in the West. We will add the 2026 total when Farm Bureau publishes it.

Which Stores Have the Cheapest Thanksgiving Meal Deals?

Walmart has the lowest announced price at $35, and Lidl is close at $35.86 for its members. These baskets are ingredients you cook yourself, and they do not match item for item, so compare the turkey size and the sides before you choose.

Offer	Price	Serves	Per person, our arithmetic	Turkey	Key limits
Walmart Holiday Meal Basket	$35	Up to 10	$3.50	13.5 lb assumed	Through Dec 24; excludes AK, HI, OK, PR, WI; delivery fees may apply
Lidl Thanksgiving basket	$35.86	Up to 10	$3.59	14 lb	Nov 11 to 25; Lidl Plus members only
Aldi Thanksgiving meal	Under $39	10	Under $3.90	16 lb	Through Nov 25; no coupon or membership
Target Thanksgiving meal	$30	6	$5.00	Up to 10 lb	Nov 8 to 29; not valid in AK or HI
Member’s Mark meal, Sam’s Club	Just under $160	Up to 16	Under $10	Hickory smoked	Membership; prices vary by club

Walmart also says the same items cost 12% less than they did a year ago, and its basket has 18% more items than last year’s. Lidl adds a promise, starting November 11, to match the comparable total basket price at Walmart and Aldi.

Which turkey prices deal fits your table?

• Six or fewer guests: Target’s $30 meal, because it is sized for six.
• Eight to ten guests: Walmart for the lowest price, or Aldi for the largest turkey, with no membership or coupons.
• Already a Lidl Plus member: Lidl, but only from November 11 to 25.
• Sixteen guests and little time: Sam’s Club, if you already pay for membership.
• Skip the baskets if: you want specific brands or scratch sides, since you will replace much of what they include.

How to Save: A Worked Per-Person Budget

Your turkey choice is the largest single swing in the budget. In Farm Bureau’s 2025 menu, the bird alone was 39% of the total, by our arithmetic. So a low per-pound price saves more than any coupon on the sides.

Here is our own worked example for eight people. It uses a 13-lb turkey, which keeps Farm Bureau’s ratio of 1.6 pounds per serving, and takes 80% of Farm Bureau’s 2025 non-turkey groceries ($33.68 for 10, so $26.94 for eight).

Turkey price used	Per lb	13-lb turkey	Other groceries	Total for 8	Per person
Target Good & Gather price	$0.79	$10.27	$26.94	$37.21	$4.65
Walmart Butterball price	$0.97	$12.61	$26.94	$39.55	$4.94
Farm Bureau 2025 average	$1.34	$17.42	$26.94	$44.36	$5.55

The same logic applies to the full Farm Bureau menu for 10. Swapping its $21.50 turkey for a 16-lb bird at Walmart’s 97¢ would bring the total to $49.20, and at Target’s 79¢ to $46.32, if your store has that size. Those are our sums, using 2025 prices for everything else.

Five ways to keep the bill down

• Buy the frozen bird early. USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service says a frozen turkey is safe indefinitely, so a low price now can wait in the freezer.
• Check what the promotion requires. Lidl’s price is for members using its app. Aldi says its price needs no coupon, card or minimum.
• Count the delivery fees. Walmart says fees of $0 to $19.95 may apply, which could erase the savings over a rival basket.
• Compare the price per person, then the pounds. A 13.5-lb turkey and a 16-lb turkey feed different appetites, and leftovers have value.
• Buy for the guest list. A $35 basket for 10 is $5.83 per person if only six come, by our arithmetic.

Common mistakes

• Reading wholesale as retail. A 175.5¢ wholesale forecast does not mean your store charges that, as the 79¢ and 97¢ prices show.
• Comparing a 2026 basket to a 2025 average. Farm Bureau’s $55.18 is last year’s number and a different menu.
• Buying a frozen bird too late. FSIS allows about 24 hours in the refrigerator per 4 to 5 pounds, so a 16-lb bird needs several days. See our turkey thawing chart.

Frequently Asked Questions