The short answer
Holiday spending by state ranges from about $2,332 per person in Oklahoma to $4,471 in the District of Columbia, according to our analysis of the National Retail Federation (NRF) 2026 forecast and federal state spending data. The U.S. average works out to $2,964 per person in core retail sales for November and December 2026.
- Highest states: New Hampshire ($3,389), Colorado ($3,379) and Massachusetts ($3,340), after D.C.
- Lowest states: Oklahoma, New Mexico and South Dakota
- Biggest totals: California ($125.3 billion), Texas ($91.9 billion) and Florida ($73.8 billion)
- National forecast: $1.013 trillion, up 4.2% from 2025 (NRF, Oct. 15, 2026)
$1.013T
NRF holiday sales forecast, 2026
$2,964
U.S. average per person
$4,471
Highest: District of Columbia
$2,332
Lowest: Oklahoma
In this article
Every fall, the NRF (the largest U.S. retail trade group) predicts how much Americans will spend in November and December. However, it only publishes one national number. So we built a state-by-state version. We combined the NRF 2026 forecast with the latest state consumer spending figures from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA, the federal agency that tracks the economy), released on Sept. 30, 2026.
The result is a state-by-state look at holiday spending for the 2026 season: an estimate of core retail spending per person and in total for every state and D.C. We also added three measured data points: how big that spending is next to local incomes, how far it goes after local prices, and how fast holiday sales actually grew in each state last year.
Holiday spending by state: the full 2026 table
The map below shows estimated holiday spending per person in each state for November and December 2026. Darker green means higher spending. Notably, coastal states with higher incomes cluster at the top, while much of the South and Plains sits below the U.S. average of $2,964.
| Rank | State | Per person (est.) | Total (est.) | Share of income | Holiday sales change, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | District of Columbia | $4,471 | $3.1B | 3.7% | +3.1% |
| 2 | New Hampshire | $3,389 | $4.8B | 3.8% | +1.8% |
| 3 | Colorado | $3,379 | $20.3B | 3.9% | +0.8% |
| 4 | Massachusetts | $3,340 | $23.9B | 3.4% | +4.0% |
| 5 | New Jersey | $3,287 | $31.4B | 3.7% | +1.9% |
| 6 | Connecticut | $3,225 | $11.9B | 3.2% | +3.1% |
| 7 | California | $3,185 | $125.3B | 3.5% | +1.1% |
| 8 | Utah | $3,180 | $11.3B | 4.5% | +0.7% |
| 9 | New York | $3,180 | $63.6B | 3.5% | +8.8% |
| 10 | Florida | $3,146 | $73.8B | 4.0% | -0.4% |
| 11 | Oregon | $3,140 | $13.4B | 4.3% | +0.6% |
| 12 | Maine | $3,140 | $4.4B | 4.4% | +1.7% |
| 13 | Illinois | $3,090 | $39.3B | 3.9% | +1.4% |
| 14 | Washington | $3,073 | $24.6B | 3.5% | +0.6% |
| 15 | Pennsylvania | $3,067 | $40.1B | 4.1% | +2.6% |
| 16 | Nevada | $3,049 | $10.0B | 4.1% | +1.9% |
| 17 | Virginia | $3,031 | $26.9B | 3.7% | +0.2% |
| 18 | Alaska | $3,017 | $2.2B | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 19 | North Carolina | $3,002 | $33.6B | 4.4% | +1.8% |
| 20 | Hawaii | $2,986 | $4.3B | 3.9% | +5.9% |
| 21 | Montana | $2,948 | $3.4B | 4.1% | +2.0% |
| 22 | Maryland | $2,934 | $18.4B | 3.6% | +0.9% |
| 23 | Vermont | $2,925 | $1.9B | 3.9% | +2.8% |
| 24 | Texas | $2,899 | $91.9B | 4.0% | +0.5% |
| 25 | Arizona | $2,895 | $22.1B | 4.2% | +1.4% |
| 26 | Delaware | $2,879 | $3.1B | 4.2% | +0.9% |
| 27 | North Dakota | $2,878 | $2.3B | 3.7% | +1.9% |
| 28 | Georgia | $2,867 | $32.4B | 4.4% | +0.0% |
| 29 | Wyoming | $2,813 | $1.7B | 3.1% | +0.0% |
| 30 | Wisconsin | $2,773 | $16.6B | 3.9% | +1.2% |
| 31 | Minnesota | $2,771 | $16.2B | 3.5% | +2.1% |
| 32 | Ohio | $2,763 | $32.9B | 4.1% | +1.2% |
| 33 | Michigan | $2,753 | $27.9B | 4.1% | +0.2% |
| 34 | South Carolina | $2,745 | $15.3B | 4.3% | +1.0% |
| 35 | Rhode Island | $2,745 | $3.1B | 3.6% | +2.4% |
| 36 | Indiana | $2,724 | $19.0B | 4.1% | +1.2% |
| 37 | Missouri | $2,695 | $16.9B | 3.9% | +2.2% |
| 38 | Tennessee | $2,693 | $19.7B | 3.9% | +2.5% |
| 39 | Kentucky | $2,666 | $12.3B | 4.4% | +2.8% |
| 40 | Nebraska | $2,611 | $5.3B | 3.4% | +1.2% |
| 41 | Alabama | $2,604 | $13.5B | 4.4% | +1.7% |
| 42 | Louisiana | $2,593 | $12.0B | 4.0% | +3.1% |
| 43 | Kansas | $2,583 | $7.7B | 3.7% | +0.8% |
| 44 | Iowa | $2,545 | $8.2B | 3.8% | +1.1% |
| 45 | Idaho | $2,518 | $5.1B | 3.9% | +0.7% |
| 46 | West Virginia | $2,449 | $4.3B | 4.2% | +3.0% |
| 47 | Mississippi | $2,443 | $7.2B | 4.5% | +0.8% |
| 48 | Arkansas | $2,439 | $7.6B | 4.0% | +1.8% |
| 49 | South Dakota | $2,435 | $2.3B | 3.1% | +1.2% |
| 50 | New Mexico | $2,431 | $5.2B | 3.9% | +2.3% |
| 51 | Oklahoma | $2,332 | $9.6B | 3.5% | +2.4% |
Want the raw numbers? Download the full dataset (CSV) with every column for all 50 states and D.C.
Which states spend the most on the holidays?
After the District of Columbia, New Hampshire, Colorado and Massachusetts spend the most per person on the holidays. However, D.C. is an outlier. It leads by a wide margin at $4,471 per resident, largely because it has the highest per capita income in the country ($119,772 in 2025, according to BEA).
Top 10 states for holiday spending per person
- District of Columbia: $4,471 per person ($3.1 billion in total)
- New Hampshire: $3,389 per person ($4.8 billion in total)
- Colorado: $3,379 per person ($20.3 billion in total)
- Massachusetts: $3,340 per person ($23.9 billion in total)
- New Jersey: $3,287 per person ($31.4 billion in total)
- Connecticut: $3,225 per person ($11.9 billion in total)
- California: $3,185 per person ($125.3 billion in total)
- Utah: $3,180 per person ($11.3 billion in total)
- New York: $3,180 per person ($63.6 billion in total)
- Florida: $3,146 per person ($73.8 billion in total)
In other words, the top 10 states all spend at least $3,146 per person, about 6% or more above the national average. Meanwhile, the largest totals come from the most populous states: California ($125.3 billion), Texas ($91.9 billion), Florida ($73.8 billion) and New York ($63.6 billion).
Which states spend the least?
Oklahoma has the lowest estimated holiday spending per person at $2,332, followed by New Mexico ($2,431) and South Dakota ($2,435). Even so, a lower dollar figure does not always mean a smaller holiday, because prices and incomes differ a lot from state to state.
Bottom 10 states for holiday spending per person
- Oklahoma: $2,332 per person
- New Mexico: $2,431 per person
- South Dakota: $2,435 per person
- Arkansas: $2,439 per person
- Mississippi: $2,443 per person
- West Virginia: $2,449 per person
- Idaho: $2,518 per person
- Iowa: $2,545 per person
- Kansas: $2,583 per person
- Louisiana: $2,593 per person
Who spends most after adjusting for prices?
Once you adjust for local prices, the ranking shifts. We used BEA regional price parities (a measure of how expensive each state is compared with the U.S. average) to convert each estimate into national-average dollars. As a result, high-cost states such as California and New York slide down, while lower-cost states such as North Dakota and Maine climb into the top five.
| Rank | State | Price-adjusted per person | Unadjusted per person |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | District of Columbia | $4,068 | $4,471 |
| 2 | Colorado | $3,279 | $3,379 |
| 3 | New Hampshire | $3,254 | $3,389 |
| 4 | North Dakota | $3,236 | $2,878 |
| 5 | Maine | $3,235 | $3,140 |
| 6 | Utah | $3,217 | $3,180 |
| 7 | North Carolina | $3,182 | $3,002 |
| 8 | Massachusetts | $3,158 | $3,340 |
| 9 | Pennsylvania | $3,143 | $3,067 |
| 10 | Montana | $3,114 | $2,948 |
At the other end, New Mexico, Idaho and Oklahoma have the lowest price-adjusted holiday spending per person. Hawaii also drops near the bottom, because its high prices mean each holiday dollar buys less.
Where holiday spending takes the biggest bite of income
Holiday spending takes the largest share of income in Utah and Mississippi, where the estimate equals about 4.5% of per capita personal income. By contrast, it is about 3.1% in South Dakota and Wyoming. Nationally, the figure is about 3.8%.
| Biggest share of income | Share | Smallest share of income | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | 4.5% | South Dakota | 3.1% |
| Mississippi | 4.5% | Wyoming | 3.1% |
| Georgia | 4.4% | Connecticut | 3.2% |
| North Carolina | 4.4% | Massachusetts | 3.4% |
| Kentucky | 4.4% | Nebraska | 3.4% |
Pro tip. If the holidays already feel tight, set one total budget before Black Friday and split it by person. After that, track it weekly. Big sale days make it easy to overspend on things that were never on the list.
Where did holiday sales grow fastest last year?
Last year, holiday store sales grew fastest in New York (+8.8%), Hawaii (+5.9%) and Massachusetts (+4.0%), according to the Census Bureau Monthly State Retail Sales data. In contrast, Alaska (-1.2%) and Florida (-0.4%) saw sales slip. Unlike our estimates, these figures are measured. However, they cover store-based retailers only, because the Census series leaves out online-only sellers.
Nationally, the same Census series shows store sales up 0.5% in November 2025 and 2.7% in December 2025 from a year earlier. That is slower than NRF’s 3.1% total for 2025, mainly because the state data leave out online-only sellers and use a different definition of retail. Also, the Census Bureau labels this series experimental, so small state differences should be read with care.
What NRF expects for the 2026 holiday season
The NRF expects holiday retail sales to grow 4.2% in 2026 to $1.013 trillion, according to its Oct. 15, 2026 forecast. That would be the first holiday season above $1 trillion. In 2025, holiday sales rose 3.1% to $972 billion.
- Season: NRF counts holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.
- What is excluded: automobile dealers, gas stations and restaurants.
- Seasonal jobs: NRF expects retailers to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, compared with about 356,000 last year.
- Per-person survey: in its 2025 consumer survey, NRF found shoppers planned to spend $890.49 each, including $627.93 on gifts and $262.56 on food, decorations and cards. NRF had not released its 2026 survey when we published.
Our per-person numbers are larger than that $890.49 survey figure for a simple reason. The survey asks shoppers about gifts and seasonal items only, whereas the NRF sales forecast, and therefore our state estimates, covers all core retail spending in November and December, including groceries, household items and clothing for everyday use.
How we calculated holiday spending by state
First, a quick summary: we used public federal data and one industry forecast. Here is exactly how we built the holiday spending by state estimates.
- National total. We started with the NRF 2026 forecast of $1.013 trillion in November and December retail sales, which excludes autos, gas stations and restaurants.
- State shares. We split that total by each state’s share of 2025 goods spending from the BEA personal consumption expenditures by state, after removing motor vehicles and parts, and gasoline and other energy goods, to match NRF’s definition. BEA measures this spending by state of residence.
- Per person. We divided each state’s total by its 2025 population from BEA’s state personal income tables.
- Share of income. We compared each per-person estimate with 2025 per capita personal income from the same BEA tables.
- Price adjustment. We divided each estimate by the state’s 2024 regional price parity, the most recent year available.
- Last year’s growth. We averaged the November and December 2025 year-over-year changes in total retail sales excluding nonstore retailers from the Census Bureau’s experimental state series.
Watch out. The per-person and total figures are estimates, not survey results. They assume each state keeps its 2025 share of national goods spending during the 2026 holidays. Tourism, cross-border shopping and online orders can push real spending in a state above or below these numbers.
Use this data
How to cite our holiday spending by state data
Journalists, bloggers and researchers are welcome to use these numbers, the map and the charts. In short, please credit Bee Bulletin and link to this page. You can also download the CSV to build your own charts. If you spot an error or want a custom cut of the data, contact our editorial team through the site.
We plan to update this page when NRF publishes its 2026 consumer survey and again after the Census Bureau releases December 2026 state sales.
Our verdict
Holiday spending by state follows income more than anything else. The District of Columbia, New England and the high-income West spend the most per person, while Oklahoma, New Mexico and South Dakota spend the least. Still, after adjusting for prices, the gap narrows, and lower-income states such as Mississippi and Kentucky put a bigger share of their income into the holidays. Nationally, 2026 is on track to be the first $1 trillion holiday season.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which state spends the most on the holidays?
The District of Columbia spends the most per person, at an estimated $4,471 in core retail holiday spending for November and December 2026. Among the 50 states, New Hampshire ($3,389) and Colorado ($3,379) rank highest. California spends the most in total, about $125.3 billion, because of its large population.
Which state spends the least on the holidays?
Oklahoma has the lowest estimated holiday spending per person in 2026, at about $2,332. New Mexico and South Dakota follow. However, after adjusting for local prices, New Mexico and Idaho rank lowest, because costs in those states are below the national average.
How much will Americans spend on the holidays in 2026?
The National Retail Federation forecasts holiday retail sales of $1.013 trillion for November and December 2026, up 4.2% from $972 billion in 2025. The figure excludes car dealers, gas stations and restaurants. It would be the first holiday season to top $1 trillion in NRF records.
What is the average holiday spending per person in 2026?
Dividing the NRF forecast by the U.S. population gives about $2,964 per person in core retail spending for November and December 2026. That covers all core retail, not just gifts. For gifts and holiday items alone, NRF’s 2025 survey found shoppers planned to spend $890.49 each.
How much does the average person spend on Christmas gifts?
In the NRF 2025 holiday survey, shoppers planned to spend $627.93 on gifts for family and friends, out of $890.49 in total holiday spending. The rest, $262.56, went to food, candy, decorations and greeting cards. NRF had not released its 2026 survey figures at the time of writing.
How was holiday spending by state calculated?
We split the NRF 2026 national forecast across states using each state’s share of 2025 goods spending from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, excluding vehicles and gasoline. Then we divided by population. We also added BEA income and price data and Census Bureau state retail sales growth for 2025.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for general information only and is not financial advice. State figures are Bee Bulletin estimates built from public data and an industry forecast, and actual spending will differ. Check the original sources before relying on any number.
